Key points:
German sales growth slows to marginal pace
Italy Retail PMI hits 33-month high
Summary of findings:
Markings final batch of euro zone retail PMI®
data for
2013 signaled an overall decline in sales for the fourth month running. The rate of decline remained
modest but accelerated slightly, reflecting a sharper contraction in France and slower growth in Germany.
The overall decline would have been stronger were it not for a marked easing the rate of contraction in
Italy, where the retail PMI hit a 33-month high.The Market Euro zone Retail PMI, which tracks
month-on-month changes in the value of retail sales,fell back to 47.7 in December, from 48.0 in
November. That matched October’s five-month low and indicated a moderate decline in sales. The
average reading for the final quarter (47.8) was lower than in Q3 (49.5) but still the second-highest in over
two years.
Commenting on the data, Trevor Balanchine, senior economist at Market and author of the Euro zone
Retail PMI, said: “The retail downturn in the euro zone continued in December. While the rate of decline in sales remains weaker than in the first half of the year, the trend over the final quarter suggests consumer
spending may fall back. “German retail sales slowed in December, but this may prove temporary given the strength shown by the flash PMI data for manufacturing and services. Meanwhile a much slower drop in Italy was countered by a sharper decline in France.” Euro zone Retail PMI
Retail PMI summary (December)
Euro zone 47.7 2-month low
Germany 50.7 8-month low
France 46.1 7-month low
Italy 45.3 33-month high
Euro zone retail sales vs. one year ago
Data summary:
Index Nov-13 Dec-13 Description Rate
PMI (Month-on-month sales) 48.0 47.7 Contracting faster
Year-on-Year Sales ▲ ▼ Contracting faster
Sales vs Plans ▲ ▲ Low er slow er
Expected Sales vs Targets ▲ ▼ Higher slow er
Gross Margins ▼ ▲ Contracting slow er
Purchase Prices ▼ ▲ Rising faster
Quantity of Purchases ▼ ▲ Contracting slow er
Stocks of Goods ▼ ▲ Expanding change of direction
Employment ► ▼ Contracting faster
▲ Above 50, rising ▲ Below 50, rising
▼ Above 50, falling ▼ Below 50, falling
► Below 50, unchanged
Euro zone retail PMI data are based on national data for the three largest euro zone economies.
Retail sales in Germany rose for the eighth month running in December, but at the weakest rate over
this sequence. Meanwhile, the retail downturn in France intensified, as sales fell for the fourth
successive month and at the fastest pace since May. Retail sales in France have risen only twice in
the past 21 months. Italy continued to post the sharpest decline in sales of the three economies, however, despite seeing a much slower fall in December. The Italian retail PMI remained well below 50.0 but rose to a 33-month high of 45.3, and the gap between it and the German retail PMI was the lowest in nearly three years.
Retail employment in the euro zone declined further in December, reflecting ongoing job shedding in
France and Italy. The overall decline across the currency area was the steepest since April. German
retailers expanded their work forces for the forty-third consecutive month.
The value of goods purchased for resale by euro zone retailers decreased further in December,
extending the current survey-record sequence of decline to 29 months. That said, the rate of
contraction slowed sharply to the weakest over this period. Stocks of goods for resale increased for the
second time in three months, and to the greatest extent since May 2012.
Wholesale prices rose in December, and the rate of inflation picked up slightly to the second-highest in
11 months. Moreover, purchase price inflation remained higher than the survey’s long-run
average. Pharmaceuticals registered the strongest increase in purchase prices, followed by food &
drink.
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